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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Bank lending

Private sector deficit spending needs to replace fading public sector deficit spending (as benefits expire) to sustain output and employment: A small pick up here but still well below where it would have been otherwise: Tax receipts are moving up aggressively with the recovery and further supported by ‘inflation:’ ...Read More

Shipping, retail sales, industrial production, NYC manufacturing

Another shipping crisis looms on Covid fears in southern China Still elevated though may be returning to trend? Still struggling: ...Read More

CPI, lumber

A rise in prices from an external shock can result in a slowdown of consumption, but to date fiscal transfers have worked to sustain incomes that support consumption. Expiring federal unemployment comp will remove some of that support, and we have a backdrop of a Fed 0 rate policy which itself is ...Read More

Expiring unemployment benefits, mtg purchase apps, trade, cpi

Soft spot in progress, and all federal unemployment benefits expire Labor Day: Still seems to be weakening: Job openings offsetting the prior dip as covid restrictions are relaxed. Hirings coming back as well, though not as quickly: The drop in imports could possibly be a sign of weakness as well: From the ...Read More

Oil drilling, vehicle sales, unemployment claims, private payrolls

With oil prices working their way higher, so is US oil drilling: Looks like they are falling back to ‘trend’: Still lots of slack: So much for the notion that businesses can’t find employees? Still lots of slack: ...Read More

Bank loans, vehicle sales, miles driven

Settling back to very low growth, partially because of the increased federal deficit spending: A bit of ‘catch up’ from the prior drop: Computer chip issues: ...Read More

Personal income, personal consumption, personal savings

Personal income has remained elevated for the entire recession due to fiscal policy, and with the supplemental federal unemployment insurance is set to expire by Labor Day personal income will fall accordingly: ...Read More

Employment by wage level, claims, durable goods, pending home sales, steel prices

Claims continue to drift lower but are still about double what they were pre covid: Continued claims are also about double pre covid levels: Fell back some and still below pre covid highs. This chart is not adjusted for inflation: Same pattern of recent weakness: Pending home sales in the US surged ...Read More

New home sales, iron and steel, semi conductors

More signs of stagnation: ...Read More

Continuing claims, Chicago Fed, air travel, gasoline, miles driven, hotels

A lot of people collecting unemployment benefits. Most is gone by labor day: Another hint at a softening: Carbon footprints on the rise but still well below pre covid levels: ...Read More
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