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Grocery Report

Well-informed retailers and manufacturers make better decisions, to the benefit of their own bottom-line and the grocery industry. Through their annual Grocery Report, ACNielsen plays a major role in keeping industry members informed on economic, retail, population and consumer trends relevant to its business.

The Grocery Report is produced as a service to the grocery industry by ACNielsen Australia and Retail World. Information within this publication has been drawn from a number of sources including ScanTrack, the Homescan consumer panel, AIM Data, our Advanced Analytics division, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARE and the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The 2000 Grocery Report

In last year’s Grocery Report, ACNielsen’s Charlie Nelson predicted “growth to slow but remain strong” - and that’s exactly what happened. For various reasons, growth throughout the 2000/01 period is going to be a lot harder to predict:

  • Whilst continued strong employment and a pick-up in the world economy will continue to fuel healthy growth, consumer confidence could be seriously eroded by interest rate increases prompted by the inflationary potential of a weak dollar.
  • One of the biggest uncertainties this year will be the impact of the GST on consumer spending. Whilst tax cuts to the tune of $12 billion will boost retail sales by about 0.6%, many consumers are still confused about which products go up or down in price as a result of the introduction of the GST (and the removal of the wholesale sales tax). Consequently, some purchases will be brought forward and others deferred to after July 1. However, do not necessarily expect a great deal of logic in how consumers will behave!

Charlie Nelson’s best estimate is that the combination of tax cuts and GST will cause a peak in retail sales in Q2, followed by a marked slowdown in Q3, somewhat of a recovery in Q4, but a further slowdown in Q1 2001. For more detailed forecasts, please contact Charlie on (03) 9207 3940.

  2000 Grocery Report (421 KB)

  1999 Grocery Report (1.05MB)

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